Record-Breaking Heat Spell May Be One in a Multitude

By Pennell Paugh

The summer of 2011, was the second highest in the United States in 75 years. For 15 states, the average temperature ranked among their top 10 warmest, while overall, 46 of the lower 48 states saw average to above-average temperatures. Oregon and Washington were the only exceptions.

Southwestern states New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas have been drought-stricken. Texas, in particular, experienced the hottest summer in recorded history, with many parts of the state reaching all-time records by wide margins. Dry, hot conditions have made this the worse year in Texas for wildfires in over a decade. Nearly 3.6 million acres have burned so far this year; an area roughly the size of Connecticut.

State Climatologist John Nielson-Gammon predicts this could be but one in a multitude of drought years for Texas.  He cited long-term weather patterns, including La Nina currents in the oceans, mirror records from the drought between 1950 through 1957.

“On September 4, a gust of wind blew a dead pine tree into power lines east of Austin, sparking the deadly Bastrop Complex Fire. That blaze killed two people, destroyed 1,600 homes, and is now the costliest fire in terms of lost property in Texas history.” (Doyle, 9/16/11)

While the US has amassed weather data for the past 50 to 100 years, if data were collected for periods dating to the 1700s, our understanding of the current heat record trends would be deepened and we would be able to definitively identify many of the causes.

References

Doyle, Rice. The Heat Wasn’t Just in USA: Hemisphere Warmed to the Task, USA Today, September 16, 2011. http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/story/2011-09-15/hot-summer-record/50419070/1

Gronewald, Daniel. Record-Setting Agricultural Disaster in Texas Gets ‘Worse by the Day,’ August 24, 2011. http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2011/08/24/24climatewire-record-setting-agricultural-disaster-in-texa-51381.html

Kuo, Vivian. Weather Experts: U.S. Summer Hottest in Past 75 Years, September 8, 2011. http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/09/08/weather.record.heat/index.html

Keward, Allyson. Global Warming Aplifying Texas Drought, Wildfire, Scientists Say, September 7, 2011. http://www.climatecentral.org/news/record-breaking-texas-drought-and-heat/

Special Note of Recognition: The Climate Database Modernization Program

We would like to recognize the efforts of the Climate Database Modernization Program (CDMP), an agency that has worked for over ten years to preserve and enhance the availability of climate data. The program sadly was eliminated in 2011 budget cuts. Like IEDRO, CDMP sought to preserve and make easily available historical weather data so that scientists could improve climate models to better predict when and where extreme climate events are likely to occur.

Since 2000, CDMP supplied resources to many types of data preservation projects, including digitizing surface and upper air measurements, analyzing weather observations by individuals, and scanning photos and graphs that tracked changes in glacier size, solar activity, and old weather maps. CDMP also supported keying and validating digitized data, enhancing the usability and overall research value of digitized information.

IEDRO has been honored to partner with CDMP in our joint efforts to provide useful climate data to weather scientists, whose work reduces undue suffering and loss of life from natural disasters and climate change. IEDRO recognizes that it has an opportunity to contribute to both the preservation and improved availability of these data. IEDRO will continue to strive with all of its affiliates in rescuing data for the common good, and looks forward to future partnerships that will better our understanding of our planet. IEDRO, and other data rescue organizations, are working to replace CDMP’s services.

Only with accurate information about the past can we make the necessary preparations for the future.  With historic weather data we can conduct climate change research, forecast the spread of disease, and improve flood forecasting. Rescuing historic environmental data can do more to prevent human suffering and death than any other endeavor in the 21st century.